The outcome of a sports bet is primarily determined by chance. In addition, the chances of winning in this type of gambling are influenced by how well someone knows the sport in question. You can therefore consider sports betting as a so-called “game of chance with a skill component”, similar to poker or sbobet.

“Proportion of competence” in sports betting is often overestimated

Experience shows, however, that the proportion of competence in sports betting is often overestimated, especially by the gamblers themselves. In other words, many people who take part in sports betting rely on their “advantage in knowledge”. They ignore the fact that they are exposed to the chance of a game of chance.

Research from Israel: Soccer fans no more successful than “laypersons” in sports betting

An Israeli study on the subject of “football betting” has now shown that the success rates of people who know football were no higher than those of people who had no knowledge of football at all. For their study, the scientists invited football fans and gamblers with experience in sports betting. They also invited people who normally neither gamble nor have any prior knowledge of football. The participants were asked to place bets on 16 European Champions League matches.

The result is surprising at first glance. The success rates of the three groups did not differ in any way. The football knowledge and the gambling experience of some participants, therefore, had no effect on the outcome of the bet. The competence share of sports betting was, therefore “zero” in this study. The overestimation of “expert knowledge” in sports betting can hardly be demonstrated more clearly than with this study finding.

Pathological gamblers: overly optimistic assessment of odds

A study from France has also dealt with the distorted perception of gamblers. A group of people with pathological gambling behaviour were asked to perform a series of mathematical brain teasers. This focused on estimating probabilities. It turned out that the participating players were overly optimistic about the probability of winning. Regardless of the objective chance of winning a bet, the players acted as if their chances of winning were actually higher. And, the more pronounced the gambling addiction symptoms of the participants, the stronger this “optimistically distorted” assessment of the outcome of the game.